Short-term electricity grid maximum demand forecasting with the ARIMAX-SVR Machine Learning Hybrid Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper proposes and discusses the viability of a short-term grid maximum demand forecasting model combining autoregressive integrated moving average with regressors (ARIMAX) support vector regression (SVR). Grid is essential to generation unit scheduling, maintenance planning system security. Traditionally, forecasted using multivariate linear models parameters adjusted past data. A disadvantage that require regular adjustment, otherwise prediction accuracy will deteriorate over time. With recent advances in field machine learning lower computational costs, usage power industry becomes increasingly practicable. The proposed combines ARIMAX SVR exploit their respective effectiveness predicting non-linear In contrast models, automatically updates itself when new data included. hybrid benchmarked against other demonstrated marked improvement accuracy, achieving RMSE 67.7MW MAPE 1.32% seven-day forecast.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: HKIE Transactions
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2326-3733', '1023-697X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33430/v28n1thie-2020-0005